A Plan to Safely Reopen the U.S. Despite Inadequate Testing

Harvard Business Review just published an opinion article on realistic public health steps that should be taken to increase the chances of a positive set of outcomes from the economic re-engagement that is occurring in many parts of the US.

My coauthors and I argue that an aggressive social protection plan, with the strategic use of masks and broader, measurable goals, can work well enough even without perfect testing regimes and incomplete contact tracing.

We conclude that best efforts at testing, tracing and masks can lower the spread by getting the RO lower. Yes, there are risks, but the risks of reopening without a plan — see Georgia — are greater. And the risks of waiting until everything is perfect are also great. We assume reopening will occur in most places within weeks or a few months, and hope that every country, region and city will act on the basis of a persistent decline in deaths, infections, and hospitalizations.

No one wants to experience the overwhelmed health care systems we have seen in Italy, Spain and parts of NY. We assume that if detected, an outbreak can be dealt with quickly by redirecting staff and resources to local health care systems from elsewhere.

We also offer some perspectives on the likely steps that will be necessary to secure…